I’m taking a different approach to my annual predictions this year. Instead of a single post summarizing my thoughts, I plan to dedicate this week to writing individual entries for each of my forecasts. This year, I typically produce ten predictions, which means I’ll be crafting a total of eleven posts this week. That’s nearly the same amount I wrote throughout all of 2022. Perhaps I’m compensating for something. For added fun, I intend to release everything at once—similar to a binge-watch of Squid Games. This year feels like the right time to do it. Maybe by significantly increasing my writing during this predictions cycle, I can ignite my creative flow for 2023, which is my only professional resolution for the upcoming year: to write much more frequently.

Before diving into new predictions, however, it’s crucial to evaluate how I fared with my forecasts for 2022. A year later, let’s review:

1. My initial prediction was that Crypto Would Collapse. Written in late December 2021 when Bitcoin hovered around $50,000, it’s now around $16,500. Many other less stable cryptocurrencies have vanished, and the overall crypto market has plummeted by nearly $2 trillion. So yes, crypto did explode—many of its prominent figures are now under investigation or in hiding. While I was correct about fraud and regulatory issues, I missed the mark on market growth and new applications. Ultimately, my prediction of a significant collapse was spot on. Check.
2. The second prediction claimed that Oculus Would Become a Breakout Success, but it would be embroiled in controversies like the rest of Facebook’s platforms. I was partially right; while Oculus' sales initially appeared promising, the flagship Horizons app quickly faced allegations of misconduct. I failed to foresee that most users would abandon their headsets after a short period. A clear miss.
3. Next was the assertion that Twitter Would Change the Game. I got this right, but not in the anticipated manner. I outlined potential product changes under new CEO Parag Agrawal, but I couldn’t have predicted the chaotic developments that unfolded, including my own departure from the platform. Twitter indeed transformed significantly, just not how anyone could have foreseen. Check.
4. For my fourth prediction, I stated that Climate Would Experience Its Worst and Best Year Ever. The initial part was easy to predict, given the plethora of climate disasters reported throughout the year. Yet, I also suggested that political momentum for climate action would rise, particularly in the U.S. This did occur, as evidenced by substantial investments in climate initiatives embedded in the Inflation Reduction Act. While it’s a step forward, it’s not enough. Check.
5. My fifth prediction revolved around The Return of the Office. Initially, many speculated that remote work would be permanent. However, by Fall, reports indicated that a return to the office was indeed happening, though hybrid work models have emerged as the new standard. Thus, I believe 2022 marked a comeback for office life. Check.
6. Just a week before January 6th, I noted that Divisions in the U.S. Would Reach a Boiling Point. With the midterms approaching and Trump reemerging in politics, this prediction sadly proved accurate. Check.
7. In my seventh forecast, I suggested Big Tech Would Expand despite regulatory pressures. However, 2022 was characterized more by defensive strategies, including layoffs and regulatory battles. While Meta and Apple made some acquisitions, they weren’t as aggressive as I predicted. Amazon, however, did acquire several companies, indicating a partial success. Let’s call it a draw.
8. My eighth prediction stated that The Streaming Market Would Pause. This turned out to be true, as the industry faced significant challenges, reflected in Netflix's declining share price. Check.
9. I also predicted that TikTok Would Lose Popularity in the U.S. Contrary to widespread expectations for its growth, developments surrounding the platform painted a negative picture, with increasing scrutiny and criticism. Big Check.
10. Finally, I forecasted that Trump’s Social Media Venture Would Yield No Results. While Truth Social persists, it has struggled with relevance and financial stability, failing to become a significant player. Check.

In summary, out of my ten predictions, I accurately assessed eight, with one notable miss and one ambiguous outcome. After two decades of making these forecasts, I believe this is my best performance yet. This sets a high bar for the coming year, but I look forward to the challenge. Thank you for reading, and I hope to connect again soon.

Previous predictions: - Predictions 2022 - Predictions 2021 - Predictions 21: How I Did - Predictions 2020 - 2020: How I Did - Predictions 2019 - 2019: How I Did - Predictions 2018 - 2018: How I Did - Predictions 2017 - 2017: How I Did - Predictions 2016 - 2016: How I Did - Predictions 2015 - 2015: How I Did - Predictions 2014 - 2014: How I Did - Predictions 2013 - 2013: How I Did - Predictions 2012 - 2012: How I Did - Predictions 2011 - 2011: How I Did - Predictions 2010 - 2010: How I Did - 2009 Predictions - 2009 How I Did - 2008 Predictions - 2008 How I Did - 2007 Predictions - 2007 How I Did - 2006 Predictions - 2006 How I Did - 2005 Predictions - 2005 How I Did - 2004 Predictions - 2004 How I Did