The Physics of Turbulence

Turbulence, defined as "irregular air motion," is a routine aspect of flying. A 2024 study indicates that aircraft encounter moderate to severe turbulence approximately 68,000 times each year. While injuries from turbulence are infrequent, the Singapore Airlines incident illustrates the potential devastation when planes hit unexpected turbulence at cruising altitudes.

In this case, 104 passengers were affected, with 41 suffering major injuries. Paul Williams, an atmospheric science professor at the University of Reading, notes that "severe turbulence turns you into a projectile." For anyone unrestrained, it’s akin to being on a rollercoaster without safety measures—terrifying.

Turbulence arises from disturbed air patterns. Near airports, strong winds can create turbulence during takeoffs or landings. At higher altitudes, turbulence resembles ocean waves, with planes experiencing vertical air currents when horizontal winds shift. Major causes include mountains, storms, and jet streams.

While pilots can often reroute to avoid turbulence caused by mountains or storms, jet streams present a unique challenge. These high-velocity air currents, traveling at around 250 km/h (135 knots) and situated between 30,000 and 52,000 feet, create significant wind shear, resulting in turbulence both above and below.

Climate Change and Turbulence

As carbon emissions continue to rise, global temperatures are increasing, altering wind patterns, including those of jet streams. A study from 2017 by Professor Williams indicated that warmer air from CO₂ emissions intensifies wind shear in jet streams. Projections suggest that severe turbulence will be two to three times more frequent over the North Atlantic by 2050-2080 due to climate change.

Recent studies from 2023 confirm that severe clear-air turbulence (CAT) has already increased significantly in the last 40 years, particularly over the USA and North Atlantic, with incidents rising by 55% in 2020 compared to 1979. It is expected that moderate CAT events will increase by about 9% in spring and winter, and 14% in autumn and summer for every 1˚C rise in global temperatures.

How climate change is making flight turbulence worse - This video discusses the connection between climate change and the increasing incidence of turbulence in air travel, highlighting alarming research findings.

Moreover, as jet streams intensify, storms are also growing stronger, leading to more turbulent thunderstorms. This is not a distant concern; it’s a current reality as air travel is projected to increase dramatically, with 4.5 billion passengers traveling before the COVID-19 pandemic and an expected rise to 7.8 billion by 2036.

Although experts like Williams reassure that flying won't become obsolete, they warn that the duration of severe turbulence could double or triple in the future.

Innovations and Safety Measures

While advancements in aircraft safety are ongoing, the focus isn't solely on preventing crashes—far rarer events. Modern aircraft are designed to endure turbulence, and early investigations into the Singapore Airlines incident have shown no immediate structural damage to the Boeing 777. However, injuries to passengers raise critical questions about flight safety.

Pilots utilize data from sensors and radar to anticipate turbulence and adjust flight paths, successfully predicting about 75% of turbulence up to 18 hours in advance. Unfortunately, a significant gap remains in detecting clear air turbulence, which can occur without visible clouds. Emerging technologies like LiDAR could enhance detection capabilities, but they come with high costs and logistical challenges.

As the aviation industry grapples with these concerns, the importance of passenger safety must remain paramount. Historical incidents of injuries from equipment failures have led airlines to compensate affected passengers, with the Montreal Convention capping claims at $260,000 for airlines deemed not at fault.

The key takeaway is clear: those wearing seatbelts during turbulence are significantly less likely to be injured. Perhaps it’s time to reconsider seatbelt policies on flights. Should the seatbelt sign be a default requirement? What if technology could alert cabin crew when a passenger's seatbelt isn't fastened?

Ultimately, while efforts to predict turbulence are essential, addressing the root cause—carbon emissions and their contribution to climate change—must be prioritized. The aviation sector must acknowledge its role and take proactive steps to mitigate its environmental impact.

Here's how climate change is affecting air turbulence - This video explores the effects of climate change on air turbulence, discussing scientific findings and implications for future flights.

Together, we can push for the changes necessary to create a safer and more sustainable flying experience. Thank you for your attentive reading and ongoing support! Subscribe for immediate insights and become part of the 500+ Antarctic Sapiens community for weekly updates.