# The Power of Believing in Luck: How It Shapes Success
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Chapter 1: Luck and Self-Belief
Richard Branson often claims to be a fortunate individual, both in business and in life. An adventurer at heart, he has faced multiple life-threatening situations, notably a shipwreck in the early '80s where he and his then-wife survived while other passengers did not, by bravely swimming to safety in a storm.
Branson's journey began with Virgin Records, producing the iconic album "Tubular Bells," which became synonymous with the film The Exorcist and has sold close to 20 million copies. He later took a daring leap to establish Virgin Atlantic, despite his bank's threats to withdraw support, ultimately leading to an impressive revenue of £3.1 billion in 2023.
In a 2014 interview, when asked about the significance of luck in building a successful business, Branson remarked:
> "Luck undoubtedly plays a role, as many hardworking individuals fail to achieve success. The old adage holds true: through hard work and making the right choices, you can create your own luck. I've been fortunate enough to survive various risky adventures, so I must have been born under a lucky star."
Branson's perspective is shared by many other successful individuals. However, the question remains: is it truly luck that propels them toward success? Some argue against the existence of luck, pointing instead to qualities like entrepreneurial spirit (Branson launched his first business at 16), resilience, and vision. What is the actual impact of luck on success, and who possesses it?
The Science Behind Luck
Research indicates that the critical factor is not whether luck is real, but whether one believes in it. A 2014 study by James Sly at Missouri State University examined how belief in luck affects self-efficacy, which refers to one's confidence in controlling motivation, behavior, and social circumstances.
The study involved 171 students who completed three questionnaires: one assessing their belief in superstition, another measuring their belief in luck, and the last gauging their sense of agency over their lives. Participants were then asked to predict the outcomes of 30 computer-generated coin tosses, where results were manipulated to ensure each person "won" exactly 15 tosses, regardless of their guesses.
Feedback varied, with some participants receiving progressively better, progressively worse, or random results. Afterward, they estimated how many tosses they believed they had predicted correctly and set goals for a challenging word puzzle.
The findings revealed that those who firmly believed in luck and received negative feedback remembered their correct predictions better than those in the other groups. Furthermore, those with high luck beliefs who experienced diminishing feedback set more ambitious goals and invested more time in the puzzle task than their counterparts with random feedback.
This study indicates that a belief in luck can enhance self-efficacy for future tasks, promoting persistence and effort even when prior success seems fleeting.
The first video titled "Luck" discusses the psychological aspects of luck and how it affects our behavior and mindset.
The Impact of Feeling Lucky
Believing oneself to be lucky can significantly alter perceptions and, in many cases, performance. Research has shown that superstitious beliefs can alleviate anxiety in uncertain scenarios. For instance, a soccer player who wears "lucky" socks may feel more confident and in control during a game.
While the 2014 study highlighted that those who believe in luck experience enhanced self-efficacy, it also noted that non-believers who had fortunate outcomes tended to feel less capable in subsequent tasks. This phenomenon, known as the gambler's fallacy, suggests that individuals who lack faith in luck may anticipate future misfortune after experiencing a stroke of good luck.
Ironically, those who consider themselves rational by dismissing superstitions might act just as superstitiously as those who embrace luck.
Individuals who perceive themselves as lucky are more likely to approach new challenges with confidence, expecting positive outcomes. This applies to Branson, who asserts, "You must take risks occasionally; bold moves are essential, even if it means putting everything on the line."
He once mentioned taking a third mortgage on his home to finance his ventures, believing that significant risks can yield substantial rewards. Would he have dared to launch an airline in a competitive market without feeling lucky? Perhaps not.
Balancing Luck and Control
However, there exists a risk of relying on luck to the extent that one relinquishes personal responsibility for their fate. Research indicates that self-efficacy and locus of control are interconnected, influencing how individuals respond to situations.
Those with an internal locus of control believe their decisions and efforts shape their lives, often resulting in higher self-efficacy. In contrast, those with an external locus of control attribute their circumstances to external factors such as fate or luck, which can diminish their self-efficacy.
Finding a balance is crucial — maintaining an external locus of control for aspects beyond our influence while taking personal accountability for what we can manage. Over-reliance on luck can skew this balance excessively outward.
Life is not a fantasy where one can sip a potion of luck to achieve their desires. However, embracing the belief in luck can serve as a powerful motivator, encouraging a positive mindset that enhances performance.
Just ask Richard Branson.
Harness the power of belief, work diligently, and carve out your own luck.
The second video titled "Are You OUT OF YOUR MIND? Being Successful is NOT LUCK!" explores the misconceptions surrounding success and the role of luck in achieving one's goals.
Nir Eyal, a former lecturer at Stanford, is a bestselling author known for his works "Hooked: How to Build Habit-Forming Products" and "Indistractable: How to Control Your Attention and Choose Your Life." His book "Indistractable" has received numerous accolades and was honored as one of Amazon's Best Books of the Year. A bonus offer includes a free workbook available on his blog, NirAndFar.com.