The Open Internet's Decline: A Reflection on Innovation
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Chapter 1: The Spark of Inspiration
Every so often, an idea for a new website or service crosses my mind, and I’m sure many of you experience the same thrill. The prospect of new concepts is invigorating — filled with promise and potential. Some of the most engaging discussions often begin with, "Wouldn't it be amazing if…?"
Most of my brainstorming revolves around digital services that leverage the internet's pervasive nature. It’s uncommon for me to envision something tied to physical spaces, like a new eatery or retail outlet. My roots are in the internet, and despite the pervasive decline we've witnessed, I believe the internet remains vastly underdeveloped. However, a recent thought experiment prompted me to reconsider this viewpoint. As I navigated through a "wouldn't it be cool" moment, I realized just how stagnant the internet ecosystem has become, stifling spontaneous creativity.
While watching an episode of And Just Like That... with my wife the other day — yes, I know, but sometimes you just want to unwind — a poignant scene caught my attention. Carrie Bradshaw scattered her husband's ashes into the Seine from the bridge where he once declared his love, marking the end of their tumultuous romance and the beginning of what seemed to be a joyful marriage years later. This scene resonated with several similar experiences I’ve had over the years (not to mention a memorable moment in The Big Lebowski, but I digress…).
In the early 1990s, my best friend's father passed away, and a group of us scattered his ashes atop Mammoth Mountain, a beloved skiing destination. Just last year, I returned to the Bay Area to honor my father by scattering his ashes in San Francisco Bay. My mother has also left instructions for her ashes — half to be scattered at the Sierra Nevada mountains' peak and the other half to be interred in her family plot on Martha's Vineyard, where a stone will commemorate her name for posterity (or at least as long as the stones endure, which seems to be 150 to 300 years, based on the older markers I've seen).
This notion of "forever" piqued my curiosity. For both my friend's father and my own, there’s no chance of achieving "forever." They lack gravestones, and their memories are likely to fade with their children. Wouldn’t it be intriguing, I pondered, if you could pinpoint the location where their ashes were scattered, leaving behind a virtual memorial with inscriptions, key biographical details, and any other cherished memories? Furthermore, wouldn’t it be fascinating if anyone could use their phones to locate these virtual memorials? I envisioned cities and landscapes filled with the spirits of generations past — in time, perhaps future versions of social and search platforms could reveal this "memorial layer" of our world through augmented reality. Imagine knowing whose spirit was released in your neighborhood or a favorite spot! After a few more advancements in generative AI, we might even engage in conversations with the avatars of those long gone. This thought sparked a new idea, which I’ll call Scatter Plot — every idea deserves a name, even a mediocre one.
Once I fell in love with the concept of Scatter Plot, I began contemplating how to bring it to fruition. Sure, creating a website could work, but without integration into Apple and Google's app stores, the idea is likely to fail from the start. Both platforms provide deep integrations with their operating systems, access to specialized hardware, and much more. I envisioned that people scattering ashes would want to film the event and attach that media to the virtual marker. From experience, developing a non-native web experience that enables even this simple task outside Apple and Google’s ecosystems is incredibly challenging.
Thus, if I were committed to launching Scatter Plot, I’d need to create native applications for both iOS and Android — and probably a web implementation that connects them. This would mean three separate development initiatives, raising both my expenses and the complexities of executing my initial idea. While the concept is straightforward, the execution already feels daunting — preliminary estimates suggest development costs could exceed $100,000 if I want it to be appealing enough to attract users.
This level of initial investment compels one to consider business models. If Scatter Plot is executed well and gains traction like Foursquare or Strava, I could envision millions of users. To maximize its potential, a freemium model might be ideal: free to create a virtual memorial, with charges for additional features like videos or extended biographies. A subscription model might not be appropriate — a one-time fee akin to what one pays at a cemetery seems more fitting. Eventually, I might integrate Scatter Plot with a large language model and offer an upgrade to that avatar feature, which could shift to a SaaS model. But initially, if I could nail down the user experience, refine my go-to-market strategy, and connect with the right influencers, I could envision a business where 1–2 percent of free users convert each year — at around ten dollars each, that would yield $100,000 per million users. While that figure could cover initial costs, it doesn't account for my time, and the path to that first million users is uncertain and long.
As I pondered potential revenue streams, reality hit. I recognized that for every dollar earned through my Android or iOS applications, I’d need to pay 30 cents just for distribution rights on their platforms. Additional costs would arise to promote the app through paid search in app stores. This hefty tax, coupled with the already elevated operating expenses of developing for three distinct platforms, would likely jeopardize any chance of substantial profit, especially in the initial scaling years. Therefore, the idea of securing VC funding to cover those upfront costs seems unrealistic — the concept simply lacks the scale to justify such an investment.
Back in the heyday of Web 2.0, when apps were new and nearly any viable idea could secure funding, there was a surge of innovative applications and services. This was a time when app store platforms were still fresh, and people had yet to grasp the implications of an internet dominated by just a few colossal corporations. I believe Scatter Plot could have attracted funding back in 2010, but now? The landscape is quite different. While it may not be the groundbreaking idea I envision, it serves as a poignant illustration of the type of experimentation that is no longer occurring, stifled by the sterile app store monopolies that now constrain the spontaneity once prevalent on the open web.
Interestingly, there exists a rudimentary, open-web version of this concept in the UK. It’s...neat in a nostalgic 2005 way…
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Chapter 2: The Big Picture
In this scene from The Big Lebowski, we witness an impactful moment that reflects the themes of memory and loss, resonating deeply with the idea of memorialization.
The Dude's iconic mantra, "The Dude Abides," serves as a reminder of the enduring nature of our experiences and memories, even in an increasingly commercialized digital world.