# Insights from the Australian Webinar on Biofuels, Japan, and HVDC
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Chapter 1: Overview of the Webinar
I recently had the privilege to engage with several hundred Australian participants during a webinar hosted by the Smart Energy Council. This event was strategically scheduled to align with my temporary stay in New Zealand, where I’ve been working as a digital nomad. Over 600 individuals registered, many tuning in from different time zones eager to access the recording.
Given the volume of inquiries received, the event could not accommodate all questions in real time. Steve Blume, the former President of the Council, and I decided that addressing these questions through articles would be beneficial for the registrants. This article serves as the second installment in a series aimed at aggregating responses, with the first covering inquiries related to aviation and maritime shipping.
The central theme of my prepared remarks revolved around the Radical Electrification of Transportation. Over the past 15 years, I have extensively researched various transportation modes and shared my findings.
Chapter 1.1: Key Takeaways from My Presentation
To encapsulate my presentation, it is evident that all forms of ground transportation will transition to electric power. This includes cars, trucks, buses, utility vehicles, trains, and mining equipment. Furthermore, inland shipping and approximately two-thirds of short-sea shipping will also electrify, leaving only the longest routes reliant on biofuels. The aviation sector is expected to experience disruption through electric regional air mobility, autonomous flight technologies, and digital air traffic control, with trans-oceanic flights potentially requiring biofuels in 50 years.
This transition implies a significant reduction in the extraction, processing, refining, and distribution of fossil fuels, which will be substituted by technology metals such as lithium and cobalt, alongside a few hundred million tons of biofuels specifically for aviation and maritime shipping. This shift is entirely feasible.
Chapter 1.2: Addressing Questions on Biofuels
One of the questions raised was regarding the comparative value of utilizing animal dung as fertilizer versus its potential use in biofuels. Personally, I am not inclined to support the presence of E. coli in our food systems. However, considering the vast amounts of biomass wasted—stemming from agricultural, wood, livestock, and food waste—there are ample opportunities for alternative uses. The primary barrier is the inadequate pricing of carbon emissions, which could make better use of biomass economically viable.
Another question focused on the viability of biomass as a source for chemical feedstocks instead of sustainable transport fuels. I believe that oil extraction will persist well into the future, primarily for producing durable goods and as a source for chemical industry feedstocks. Currently, about 20% of a barrel of oil is not consumed but is used in less harmful applications. It is crucial to understand that the issue lies not in oil itself, but in the CO2 emissions produced by its combustion.
Regarding concerns about biofuels and their impact on land use and food competition, it is important to clarify that first-generation biofuels have limitations, but future developments will not rely on food crops. For instance, the stalks of corn, wheat, and rice could potentially produce sufficient biofuels for aviation that cannot electrify, utilizing the biomass we already discard.
Chapter 2: Perspectives on HVDC Transmission
The discussion also touched on the potential for HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) production to scale up effectively. HVDC is akin to a new pipeline, utilizing aluminum as a conductor rather than copper. Notably, aluminum is abundantly available, making it feasible for widespread use. Companies like Xlinks have encountered supply challenges but have established manufacturing capabilities to meet demand.
Regarding Japan, geopolitical dynamics play a significant role in energy sourcing. Japan's major trading partners, such as China and South Korea, are geographically close, raising questions about the feasibility of renewable energy trade in the region. As various global regions—including Europe, ASEAN, and the United States—move towards strategic energy interdependence, Japan must also adapt, or risk economic decline.
The potential for offshore wind farms in Japan’s shallow waters is another area of opportunity that has not been fully realized. The idea that Japan might significantly increase its energy costs without a viable strategy is questionable; there’s hope for a rational pivot towards sustainable practices.
Chapter 3: The Future of Global Energy Interconnections
I envision that the Sun Cable project marks the beginning of a broader HVDC network connecting the Asia-Pacific region. My previous experiences in Singapore have allowed me to witness the increasing interest in HVDC interconnections throughout ASEAN, and I have been following China's ambitious Supergrid initiatives closely. Integrating Australia's energy supply into the broader APAC grid appears quite plausible, with expected future connections to the Philippines and Indonesia.
The idea of establishing a global power grid was initially proposed by China in 2016, suggesting a trans-polar HVDC network linking northern hemisphere continents. This vision holds immense potential, despite the political complexities currently hindering progress. As global dynamics shift, we may find renewed opportunities for collaboration in energy sharing.
In conclusion, the questions posed during the webinar spanned a wide array of topics, from the eventual phasing out of fossil fuels to the intricacies of geopolitics and seabed mining. Stay tuned for more articles that will delve deeper into these discussions.